Image: (Brad Penner/Imagn Images)
Devin Williams and his struggles are puzzling, and his 2025 profile is full of contradiction. His peripherals are for the most part the same– arm angle, movement profile, spin, velocity – but both quality of contact and amount of contact has dramatically increased.
Hitters are still swinging at the changeup the same amount, but instead of swinging and missing, they are making hard contact with favorable launch angles. Note the swinging strike %; down from 22.2% to 9.4%. Last year, the changeup had a .161 expected slugging%, but this year that has gone up to .490.
But somehow Fangraphs’ Pitching+ model, which combines physical characteristics of the pitches (Stuff+), location of the pitches, and the context they were thrown in, actually grades him better this year than last – up to 113 from 105 last year.
For what it’s worth, his expected ERA is 6.04, still a far cry from his reputation, but lower than his actual ERA of 11.25. His BABIP is .429, partly a symptom of the higher exit velocities, but even .429 is high for the quality of contact he has allowed. Furthermore, the walks have always been an issue for him in his career, but he has been able to get out of it with his typically 40% K rate – which is down to 18% this year.
So what is the verdict? Even with this information, the root cause of his troubles remain inscrutable. Williams has certainly not been good, despite some numbers suggesting that he should not have been quite as bad as his nominal ERA. He isn’t getting whiffs, he is still walking people, and getting hit way harder than he ever has, without a noticeable change in his underlying metrics.
In his latest two blow-up outings, he has been hurt by leaving pitches to hit over the plate at inopportune times, first to Brandon Lowe and then to Alejandro Kirk. Thus, it can partly be attributed to hitters taking advantage of command issues, which is often mental.
But his changeup’s sudden ineffectiveness is most troubling; hitters may have found a formula against Williams in sitting on the changeup, which he throws 55% of the time, and often out of the zone, with the hitter pouncing on the ones he eventually has to thrown in the zone when he gets behind in the count. Alternatively, they could have a tip on him, as the Mets may have had in the NLDS last year.
If his troubles persist and the Yankees believe it to be a mental issue, it may be worth trying to trade the impending free agent before his value drops even further and instead installing Luke Weaver their closer, who has shown the ability to thrive in high leverage moments, and has yet to allow a run this year. Even with his struggles this year, teams would likely still be willing to acquire Williams at the deadline given his track record and teams’ ever-present demand for relievers and willingness to pay a high price – see the trades of Jason Adam and Tanner Scott at the 2024 deadline.
For now, though, the Yankees should put Williams in a lower leverage role to examine the degree to which his struggles are mental; this would give the team more information about how to go forward and Williams more time to work through whatever is beguiling him. It would be prudent for the Yankees to do this now, as opposed to digging their heels in as they did with Clay Holmes last year. Aaron Boone hinted at the possibility of this in his postgame presser last night, so we may see change coming soon.
Categories: Analysis, MLB Player Profiles
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