Image: Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images
Check out Armaan Bhaskar’s 2024 Season Preview Article for the Philadelphia Phillies here.
2024 Record: 95-67 (.586 win%, 1st in Division)
2024 Payroll: 247,149,605 (4th)
2024 Top 10 Players (by fWAR):
1. RHP Zack Wheeler, 2.57 ERA, 28.5 K%, 6.6 BB%, 7.0 fWAR
2. 1B Bryce Harper, .285 AVG/.373 OBP/.525 SLG,145 wRC+, 5.2 fWAR
3. RHP Aaron Nola, 3.57 ERA, 24.0 K%, 6.1 BB%, 4.4 fWAR
4. LHP Cristopher Sánchez, 3.32 ERA, 20.3 K%, 5.8 BB%, 4.0 fWAR
5. SS Trea Turner, .295 AVG/.338 OBP/.469 SLG, 123 wRC+, 3.9 fWAR
6. 3B Alec Bohm, .280 AVG/.332 OBP/.448 SLG, 115 wRC+, 3.5 fWAR
7. DH Kyle Schwarber, .248 AVG/.366 OBP/.485 SLG, 135 wRC+, 3.4 fWAR
8. LHP Ranger Suárez, 3.46 ERA, 23.2 K%, 6.5 BB%, 3.4 fWAR
9. LHP Matt Strahm, 1.87 ERA, 33.3 K%, 4.6 BB%, 2.5 fWAR
10. LF Brandon Marsh, .249 AVG/.328 OBP/.419 SLG, 108 wRC+, 2.4 fWAR
M-SABR Predicted Record (93-69) vs. Actual (95-67):
Armaan’s prediction from the season preview was just about right on the money. Both Aaron Nola and Trea Turner did have bounceback seasons from their 2023 campaigns. The Phillies also improved their record against NL East opponents. After going 25-27 within the division in 2023, the Phillies went 29-23 in 2024. This just about makes up for their jump from 90 to 95 wins overall, which would be good enough for them to take the division crown.
The Atlanta Braves very well may have won the division again if they had not been decimated by injuries to key players like Spencer Strider, Austin Riley, Ronald Acuña Jr., and Ozzie Albies. The Braves had been heavy favorites going into the season. Unfortunately, after the team’s best regular season since 2011, the Phillies were not able to deliver in the playoffs, losing quickly in the NLDS.
Regular Season Recap:
The Philadelphia Phillies started their 2024 campaign scorching hot, surging to a league-best 40-18 record by the end of May. This included a historic stretch where they went 29-6 in a 35-game span. This hot start was the best in franchise history, and they became the first team to win 36 of their first 50 games since the 2001 Mariners, who went on to win 116 games.
The pitching was phenomenal from top to bottom to start the season. Through 48 games, the Phillies had a 128 ERA+, 28% above the average of 100. At this same point, the Phillies had 7 pitchers with an ERA under 3.00 (Ranger Suárez, Spencer Turnbull, Jeff Hoffman, Matt Strahm, José Ruiz, Zack Wheeler, Orion Kerkering).
Suárez was particularly great to start the season. In his first nine starts, he went 8-0 with a 1.37 ERA, holding batters to a .171 batting average. He is one of 10 pitchers since 1920 to start a season with those numbers.
Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and Cristopher Sánchez were all pitching at extremely high levels, establishing themselves as the best rotation in baseball to start the year.
The offense was producing at a high rate as well. Alec Bohm was playing the best baseball of his career, hitting .307 with a team-leading 47 RBI through the first two months of the season. Bryce Harper was putting up his usual great numbers, taking home National League Player of the Month in both May and June. And Trea Turner, before straining his hamstring on May 3rd, was slashing .343/.392/.460 after going .266/.320/.459 in a disappointing 2023 season.
The Phillies took the NL East lead on May 3rd and never looked back, controlling the division all the way through the end of the season.
Their historic pace had slowed by the All Star break, entering at 62-34. Still, the Phillies had eight All-Stars. Jeff Hoffman, Matt Strahm, Ranger Suárez, Zack Wheeler, Alec Bohm, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, and Cristopher Sánchez were all selected to play in this year’s Mid-Summer Classic in Texas.
The Phillies made four deals at the trade deadline:
- Acquired outfielder Austin Hays from the Orioles for outfielder Cristian Pache and reliever Seranthony Domínguez
- Acquired reliever Carlos Estévez from the Angels for pitching prospects George Klassen and Samuel Aldegheri
- Acquired reliever Tanner Banks from the White Sox for infield prospect William Bergolla
- Acquired pitching prospects Seth Johnson and Moisés Chace from the Orioles for reliever Gregory Soto
Hays did not have a significant impact with the Phillies, hitting .256 with 6 RBI in 22 games played. The trade for closer Carlos Estevez was certainly the most notable deal the Phillies made. Appearing in 20 regular season games, Estevez had a 2.57 ERA and was able to collect six saves. He appeared in three of the four Phillies postseason games, allowing one earned run in 2 ⅔ innings pitched. Tanner Banks appeared in 22 regular season games and posted a 3.70 ERA.
Unfortunately, when the team returned after the break, the season took a dramatic turn for the worse. The team won just three of their first 14 games after the break, and the team that had dominated baseball for the first two months of the season was no longer looking anywhere close to the best team in baseball.
Prior to the All-Star break, the team had a 3.42 ERA, which was second in all of baseball. The rest of the way, the team had a 4.49 ERA, good for 21st in baseball. Offensively, the performance in the second half was not too different from the first half. Before the break, the team slash line was 259/.331/.424. Their second half slash line was somewhat similar at .255/.316/.425.
The Phillies ended up going 33-33 after the break, finishing with a 95-67 record. Thanks to their hot start, the Phillies were able to clinch the NL East title on September 23rd, their first division crown since 2011. The Phillies finished the regular season with the second best record in baseball, trailing the Los Angeles Dodgers by three games.
Playoff Recap:
After a historically great start to the season, the Phillies postseason ended abruptly, losing the NLDS in four games to the New York Mets.
In Game 1, Kyle Schwarber hit a leadoff homer to fire up the Philly crowd right away. After that, there was no score until the 8th inning, where the Mets exploded for five runs against Jeff Hoffman and Matt Strahm to stun the Philly fans. Hoffman and Strahm were both All-Stars for the Phillies, but they were not able to hold down the Mets lineup as Zack Wheeler had for seven innings prior.
Game 2 was a back-and-forth thriller with the Phillies winning 7-6 on a walk-off single from Nick Castellanos.
In Game 3, the Phillies were held scoreless for the first seven innings, and ended up losing 7-2.
Game 4 was a similar story offensively, with the Phillies scoring just one run. Francisco Lindor would hit the game and series-winning grand slam for the Mets in the sixth inning.
This series was a complete disaster for the Phillies, struggling mightily to get any offense going early in games and scoring just five runs total in their three losses. Excluding Nick Castellanos and Bryce Harper, the Phillies hitters were an abysmal 13 for 100 in the series. Castellanos went 7-for-17 and Harper went 4-for-12 with five walks.
On top of the lackluster offensive production, the Phillies bullpen completely imploded. The relievers that manager Rob Thomson used in this series had a regular season era of 2.78. Yet, in this short four game series, the same relievers allowed 16 earned runs in 12 ⅔ innings, good for a 11.37 ERA.
Anything short of a World Series title was going to be considered a failure for the Phillies this year. And after a World Series appearance in 2022, and another NLCS appearance in 2023, this year’s NLDS collapse was certainly that.
Player We Watched #1: RHP Aaron Nola
Aaron Nola did have the bounce back season that we expected. After posting an unexpectedly high 4.46 ERA in 2023, he looked more like his usual self in 2024, with a 3.57 ERA. He was able to lower his ERA by a significant margin even with a higher BB/9 of 2.26 (up from 2.09 in 2023) and a lower K/9 of 8.89 (down from 9.39 in 2023).
His HR/9 were down from 1.49 to 1.35 this season, and he had an xERA of 3.75, very similar to the xERA of 3.71 he had the year before, suggesting he may have just had an unlucky season in 2023.
In his lone postseason start in Game 3 of the NLDS against the Mets, Nola pitched five innings and allowed four earned runs, including two homers.
Player We Watched #2: CF Johan Rojas
In a larger role with the Phillies this season, Johan Rojas struggled offensively, but continued to get significant playing time due to his elite defense and speed. In 120 games this year, he hit .243 with a wRC+ of 68. His walk rate remained low, coming in at just 3.6%.
On the bright side, Rojas did steal 25 bases. Due to his elite defense and speed, the Phillies may give him some more time to develop offensively before moving on to other options in center field.
Player We Watched #3: RHP Jeff Hoffman
After a strong 2023 season, relief pitcher Jeff Hoffman was positioned to have another great one in 2024, and he did just that. He posted a career-best 2.17 ERA with a career-high K/9 of 12.08 and a career-low BB/9 of 2.17.
He was a dependable late-inning option for Rob Thomson, and was able to pick up 10 saves for the Phillies this year. This led to the veteran pitcher making his first MLB All-Star appearance. Unfortunately, his elite play did not show up in the NLDS for the Phillies, as he allowed six earned runs in just 1 ⅓ innings pitched.
Hoffman, along with other key Phillies reliever Carlos Estévez, will be a free agent this year. Both will demand expensive contracts, and the Phillies will likely not be able to retain them both.
Offseason Outlook:
The Phillies should look to find a reliable fifth starter to finish out the rotation. Taijuan Walker made 15 starts in that role this year, and finished the season 3-7 with a 7.10 ERA. Given the four-year, $72 million contract that the Phillies gave him prior to the 2023 season, it will be costly to move on from him, but doing so may be best for the team.
Andrew Painter, the Phillies top pitching prospect, may be able to fill in the hole in the Phillies rotation at some point in the 2025 season. After undergoing Tommy John surgery in July of 2023, Painter has recovered well, just recently being named the Arizona Fall League Pitcher of the Year. Painter was able to post a 2.30 ERA with a .189 batting average against in 15 ⅔ innings. It is unclear when Painter will be joining the Phillies in 2025, but he will almost certainly get the call at some point.
The Phillies have also been linked to Chicago White Sox All-Star pitcher Garrett Crochet, who is likely to be traded this offseason. In 146 innings pitched with the White Sox this year, he had a 3.58 ERA and a 2.83 xERA. If the Phillies are willing to pay the price for him, he would be a huge improvement to the last spot in the rotation.
The Phillies will likely look to add some cheaper bullpen help as they will be unlikely to retain both Hoffman and Estevez. Spencer Turnbull, who started seven games, pitched a total of 54 ⅓ innings, and posted a 2.65 ERA, is the only other Phillies free agent. There is a good chance that the Phillies let him walk as well.
The Phils could also use an improved outfield bat. It will be interesting to see if they stick with Rojas in center and Marsh in left field to start the 2025 season. With the subpar offensive output in the outfield, they will definitely be open to making a change.
The Phillies will be meeting with top free agent OF Juan Soto, but it will be a long shot to get him, as the Phillies currently have the highest projected payroll in 2025 in all of baseball. Soto will likely demand a contract over $500 million, maybe over $600 million, and there are many other teams vying for his services.
We’ll see if the Phillies make a surprise big move, like trading Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott, or Nick Castellanos, but overall, the Phillies have a very talented roster that has underperformed in the postseason. The lineup will likely look very similar next year, and they will have to hope that they can perform better when October 2025 rolls around.
Categories: 2024 Season Review, Articles, Season Analysis
M-SABR 
Leave a comment