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2024 MLB Season Review: Kansas City Royals

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Check out my 2024 Season Preview Article for the Kansas City Royals here.

2024 Record: 86-76 (.531 win%, 2nd in Division)

2024 Payroll: $122,546,954 (20th)

2024 Top 10 Players (by fWAR):

1. SS Bobby Witt Jr., .332 AVG/.389 OBP/.588 SLG, 168 wRC+, 10.4 fWAR

2. SP Seth Lugo, 3.00 ERA, 21.7 K%, 5.7 BB%, 5.9 fWAR

3. SP Cole Ragans, 3.14 ERA, 29.3 K%, 8.8 BB%, 5.0 fWAR

4. SP Michael Wacha, 3.35 ERA, 21.2 K%, 6.6 BB%, 4.3 fWAR

5. SP Brady Singer, 3.71 ERA, 22.3 K%, 7.1 BB%, 3.8 fWAR

6. C/1B Salvador Perez, .271 AVG/.330 OBP/.456 SLG, 115 wRC+, 3.2 fWAR

7. C Freddy Fermin, .271 AVG/.319 OBP/.366 SLG, 91 wRC+, 1.9 fWAR

8. 2B Michael Massey, .259 AVG/.294 OBP/.449 SLG, 102 wRC+, 1.5 fWAR

9. 1B/DH Vinnie Pasquantino, .262 AVG/.315 OBP/.446 SLG, 108 wRC+, 1.5 fWAR

10. CF Kyle Isbel, .229 AVG/.287 OBP/.367 SLG, 81 wRC+, 1.4 fWAR

M-SABR Predicted Record (73-89) vs. Actual (86-76):

Well, I was wrong. I feel like this year, all my predictions have been wrong. So recently, I’ve been predicting the opposite of what I think is going to happen (like George Costanza in that Seinfeld episode), and it’s actually been working out for me pretty well. I wish I started doing this sooner, like when I was writing the Royals season preview. At least I didn’t have the Royals losing 90 games. I feel like that counts for something.

Regardless, the Royals outperformed expectations this year. They got great starting pitching across the board from guys like Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo, and Bobby Witt Jr. performed better than he ever has on his huge contract. The additions at the trade deadline of Lucas Erceg, Michael Lorenzen, and Paul DeJong, while not groundbreaking, really helped solidify the team and secure their spot in the postseason. 

Regular Season Recap:

This was a season of many ups and downs for the Kansas City Royals. I think it’s fair to say that most baseball fans did not really have any expectations for the team coming into this season, but that changed quickly as they started out hot and won seven in a row in April, propelling them to 9-4 by April 11th.

By the end of the month, they were 18-13, opening the eyes of many baseball fans. Their pitching staff particularly started hot with an ERA of 3.21 in March/April as Seth Lugo led the way with a 1.66 ERA in 38 innings pitched.

Kansas City continued this hot streak into May as they went on an eight game win streak, finishing the month with a 35-24 record. However, in June, they ran into a little bit of a rough patch as they went on a stretch in which they lost 11 of 14 games. They did finish the month strong, holding on to the last Wild Card spot by two games over the Boston Red Sox.

Up to this point, the Royals were looking so good that one of our writers, Ryan Jafri, wrote an article discussing why the Royals would make the World Series. The point is, Kansas City had some believers, and they rode the momentum into July. That month, Bobby Witt Jr. went off as he earned American League Player of the Month honors with a ridiculous slash line of .489/.520/.833. He became the first Royals shortstop to win the award and their first player to do it since Billy Butler in September 2009.

Leading up to the trading deadline, the Royals made four deals:

Three out of four of these players had a significant impact on the rest of the team’s season. Michael Lorenzen pitched to a 1.57 ERA in 28.2 innings while Lucas Erceg had a 2.88 ERA in 25 innings, taking over as the Royals closer for James McArthur, While Paul DeJong was not very impressive offensively, he was still a plus on the defensive side, finishing with a 0.7 fWAR in 37 games for Kansas City.

Hunter Harvey was not very impactful as he only pitched 5.2 innings to a tune of a 6.35 ERA for the team before a back injury shut him down for the rest of the season. It is important to note that Lorenzen was out for nearly a month between late August and late September, which might have contributed to making the race for the Wild Card a little too close for comfort at the end.

When Lorenzen was out, the Royals had two separate seven-game losing streaks. Vinnie Pasquantino also broke his right thumb during the first streak from late August to early Sepetember, which further hampered the team as he missed the rest of the regular season. Despite all of this, the Royals did enough to finish with the second Wild Card as Lorenzen came back in late September. 

Overall, KC got significant contributions across the board from unexpected players. Michael Massey improved from a 0.4 fWar in 2023 to a 1.5 fWar this season.

Salvador Perez also had a huge bounce back season, moving from a .714 OPS in 2023 to a .786 OPS in 2024 in spite of the fact that he is only moving later into his 30s.

Bobby Witt Jr. had a breakout campaign, finishing second in MVP voting only behind Aaron Judge. Witt finished as the batting champion of the AL with a .332 mark over 700 plate appearances while only missing one game. He also recorded the most total hits in the AL with 211 while stealing over 30 bases and hitting more than 30 home runs.

The team’s pitching was also better than expected. Guys like Seth Lugo (2024 Gold Glove winner), Michael Wacha, Cole Ragans, and Brady Singer really stepped up as starters, while the bullpen was solid too. The starters had a 3.55 ERA, while the bullpen posted a 4.13 mark.

The defense was also a positve for the Royals as many defensive metrics and scales had the Royals ranked in the top 10 in baseball. Bobby Witt Jr. and Kyle Isbel particularly had great defensive years as Baseball Savant estimates that they saved 12 and nine runs, respectively. Isbel was left with lacerations after fouling a ball off of his face in late May and had to deal with a back injury in June. Despite missing 26 games this season, he still had a huge impact on the Royals regular season success.

Ultimately, the Royals offense finished 13th in runs scored with 735 and 6th in runs allowed at 642, good for a +93 run differential (8th in MLB).

Playoff Recap:

In the Wild Card round, the Royals played the Baltimore Orioles, sweeping them while just holding them to one run in the two games. This was a series about pitching, as the Royals barely won both games, 1-0 in game one and 2-1 in game two. Ragans and Lugo were terrific, combining for 10.1 innings and one earned run across the two games. The bullpen didn’t give a run over their 7.2 innings of work. Erceg saved both games without even giving up a hit. The pitching, in all, was excellent and got out of jams when needed.

The offense didn’t do much in this series, but they didn’t need to. Vinnie Pasquantino made his return, playing through a broken right thumb. After producing a walk in game one, he came up big in game two, adding two hits, a walk, and a RBI. Bobby Witt Jr. also had a solid series, going 3-9 with 2 RBIs.

The ALDS, unfortunately, was a different story for the Royals as they lost the series 3-1 to the Yankees. They did take a game in Yankee Stadium, but were unable to win either of their home games. The Royals were, to their credit, competitive in every single game during that series as the margin of victory was no greater than two runs in any of the four games. However, you have to ask what could have been, as Bobby Witt Jr. did not have a great series, going just 2-17 with a walk in the four games. Witt is obviously not the only at fault, as pretty much everyone besides Tommy Pham had a subpar series offensively.

The pitching for the Royals was pretty solid although Michael Wacha did have a 5.19 ERA in 8.2 innings. You can’t blame the pitching for the series loss, however, as they compiled a 3.60 ERA.

The Yankees series was a tough one for the Royals, but it is amazing that they made it this far.  

Player We Watched #1: SS Bobby Witt Jr.

In the season preview, I said this guy had to be the man, the myth, and the legend after they signed him to that long extension, and this season, Witt was just that. Offensively, defensively, his will to win…simply unmatched. This guy is incredible. Second place in MVP voting, 30-30 season, over 200 hits, and unlike Joel Embiid, he’s available. He’s a superstar that actually plays, a characteristic that luckily, in baseball for now, is something that we see a lot of in great players. Oh yeah, he also won a Gold Glove at shortstop, probably the second most important defensive position. Batting in the two hole, there aren’t many weaknesses to Witt’s game. 

Player We Watched #2: SP Cole Ragans

Well, Ragans was pretty good as well. He had the third most fWAR on the team and strikes out batters at will with a 29.3 K% this season. I really have nothing more to say on him other than he was a fantastic pickup last season and that he outperformed even my high expectations coming into this season. 

Player We Watched #3: 1B/DH Vinnie Pasquantino

Unfortunately for Royals fans, I was wrong about Pasquantino. He did not significantly improve this season as his wRC+ only took a slight jump up from 2023 to 2024 (103 to 108). You could point to injuries as to why he under-perfomed, but at the end of the day, I’m still disappointed in his production. I believe if the Royals want to be World Series contenders in the near future, Pasquantino is going to have to pick it up, and while I do believe this is possible, I’m losing faith.

Offseason Outlook:

I said that Matt Quatraro was a good signing for the Royals as their manager, and he proved to be just that. He should stay with the organization for a while as he is the favorite, as of right now, to win AL Manager of the Year. Bobby Witt Jr. is obviously going to stay for the long haul, but they will probably have to replace some of their other position players.

Adam Frazier was not very good for them, so he’s probably gone. Robbie Grossman, Tommy Pham, Paul DeJong and Yuli Gurriel, if I had to guess, won’t return. I think the Royals should and will hang on to Garrett Hampson. He’s a really good defensive and speedy outfielder off the bench who should come cheap. I think other replacements will come from the minors and low cost free agents.

I believe the Royals will go after more speedy and defensive players because they’ll want to steal more bases than they did this year (134). I think they also want to make sure that their pitching has as much support behind them as possible because it looks like that will be a strength of theirs for years to come.

I wouldn’t say that Kansas City has any integral pitchers that they’ll have to let go. I think they’re going to let relievers Will Smith and Josh Taylor walk and possibly replace them with a low cost option like Ryne Stanek, who was very impressive for the Mets at the end of the season.

I think the Royals will end up keeping Lorenzen because he’s an extra starting arm that could also pitch in the bullpen and be effective in either role. I could see the them also going out and adding more low cost relief and starting arms that could start their season in the minors but work their way up to the majors over the course of the season.

I think they might also consider adding Trevor Williams, who should not be too expensive despite the fact that he had a great season in Washington. He’s another guy who could be an effective starter or reliever. The Royals could also call up Noah Cameron and/or Steven Zobac in 2025 as they have impressed in the minors over the past couple of years.

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