Image: Steph Chambers/Getty Images
Check out Harvey Van Blerkom’s 2023 Season Preview Article for the Mariners here.
2023 Record: 88-74 (.543 win%, 3rd in AL West)
2023 Payroll: 134,466,903 (18th)
2023 Lineup:
1. SS J.P. Crawford, .266 AVG/.380 OBP/.438 SLG, 4.9 fWAR
2. CF Julio Rodríguez, .275 AVG/.333 OBP/.485 SLG, 5.9 fWAR
3. 1B Ty France, .250 AVG/.337 OBP/.366 SLG, 0.5 fWAR
4. RF Teoscar Hernández, .258 AVG/.305 OBP/.435 SLG, 1.8 fWAR
5. 3B Eugenio Suárez, .232 AVG/.323 OBP/.391 SLG, 3.2 fWAR
6. C Cal Raleigh, .232 AVG/.306 OBP/.456 SLG, 4.7 fWAR
7. LF Jarred Kelenic, .253 AVG/.327 OBP/.419 SLG, 1.3 fWAR
8. DH Mike Ford, .228 AVG/.323 OBP/.475 SLG, 0.6 fWAR
9. 2B José Caballero, .221 AVG/.343 OBP/.320 SLG, 2.2 fWAR
10. UT Dylan Moore, .207 AVG/.303 OBP/.428 SLG, 0.7 fWAR
2023 Rotation:
1. RHP Luis Castillo, 197.0 IP/3.34 ERA/1.10 WHIP, 3.4 fWAR
2. RHP Logan Gilbert, 190.2 IP/3.73 ERA/1.08 WHIP, 3.2 fWAR
3. RHP George Kirby, 190.2 IP/3.35 ERA/1.04 WHIP, 4.4 fWAR
4. RHP Bryce Miller, 131.1 IP/4.32 ERA/1.14 WHIP, 1.9 fWAR
5. RHP Bryan Woo, 87.2 IP/4.21 ERA/1.21 WHIP, 1.0 fWAR
2023 Top 4 Relievers:
1. RHP Paul Sewald, 43.0 IP/2.93 ERA/1.02 WHIP, 1.0 fWAR
2. RHP Matt Brash, 70.2 IP/3.06 ERA/1.33 WHIP, 2.1 fWAR
3. RHP Justin Topa, 69.0 IP/2.61 ERA/1.15 WHIP, 1.1 fWAR
4. RHP Andrés Muñoz, 49.0 IP/2.94 ERA/1.27 WHIP, 1.3 fWAR
Regular Season Recap:
The goal of the 2023 Mariners was to take a step past what they had achieved in the year prior: breaking the then-longest MLB postseason drought and winning a playoff series. This was the team to do it, too, as their big addition of Teoscar Hernández rounded out a team filled with talent on both sides of the ball. Unfortunately, if you want to improve upon your playoff performance, you have to make it there first.
Despite losing some parts of their roster that had been staples throughout the past couple of years, like Mitch Haniger and Erik Swanson, the plan for the Mariners remained relatively unchanged. They would rely on a solid hitting core led by Julio Rodríguez to put up enough runs to support a fear-inducing rotation and strong bullpen. Expectations remained high, and there was no doubt in anybody’s minds that this team had the tools needed to win the AL West and threaten a deep playoff run.
These bold ambitions experienced a first hiccup within the first series of the season. After losing the honor of opening day starter to ace Luis Castillo, 2021 Cy Young winner and free agent signee Robbie Ray was pulled from the second game of the year against the Cleveland Guardians with an injury to his flexor tendon and UCL, resulting in a need for Tommy John surgery. Immediately, they were out one of their most reliable starters and the innings pitched that came with his departure.
April ended poorly, as the Mariners closed losing 6-of-10 en route to a 12-16 record for the month. They were playing close games but not getting the results they needed. To make things worse, the Astros weren’t the clear team to beat anymore. The Rangers boasted what would go on to be the most potent offense in the American League, led mainly by their expensive middle infield of Corey Seager and Marcus Semien.
Along with the superstars posing a threat from Anaheim, the AL West division race was shaping up to be one that was very contentious. Players and fans alike began to become distraught by the lack of spending by ownership, which they believed they needed to compete with these other teams.
Although the loss of Ray was significant, it was largely overshadowed by the long-awaited breakout of Jarred Kelenic, the big-named prospect acquired in the trade that sent Robinson Canó and Edwin Díaz to the New York Mets. By the end of April, Kelenic was batting .308 through 101 plate appearances, with 7 home runs and a .982 OPS. At the time, it seemed that the Kelenic everybody was waiting for had finally arrived, but this would unfortunately be the only month of the year where his OPS+ would be above 100, as he returned back to his familiar struggles for the remainder of the season.
By the All-Star break, the Mariners had sputtered to a 45-44 record. If they wanted to make the playoffs, they had to keep playing the way they were in July and outpace the other teams in the West for a shot at division. They cut ties with players like Tommy La Stella and Chris Flexen, and many hoped for a fruitful trade deadline that would bring the spark needed to finish the season strong.
Instead, Mariners’ General Manager Justin Hollander pulled the trigger on closer Paul Sewald, sending him to Arizona for long-time Diamondback Josh Rojas, recent call-up Dominic Canzone, and prospect infielder Ryan Bliss. The trade was reminiscent of the move that sent closer Josh Hader to the Padres last year, causing turmoil and confusion in the clubhouse that ultimately led to the Brewers missing the playoffs.
Not unlike Devin Williams, Andrés Muñoz was very suitable for the closer role, so maybe these general managers viewed these trades as getting value for high-level pieces that they could replace rather easily. However, it is clear that this sends the wrong message to players and fans and has yet to work out for a team.
Despite a rather uneventful and confusing deadline, the Mariners played their best baseball in August, going 21-6 and standing atop the division at the end of the month. Julio Rodríguez collected his first career MLB Player of the Month Award, batting .429, swatting seven homers, and having a 1.198 OPS while also swiping 11 bags. Rodríguez was showing why he is the franchise star, and the Mariners looked poised for another playoff run.
At this point, teams like the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Angels were far behind, as it looked like the Astros, Mariners, Rangers, and Blue Jays would be competing for the three final playoff spots in the American League. With the season coming to a close, the playoff race was coming down to the wire, and with many games against their division rivals, the Mariners needed to lean on the players that had been the most reliable for them .
On September 28th against the Texas Rangers, J.P. Crawford delivered one of the most magical moments of the season. Crawford has been a reliable shortstop for the better part of five seasons for the Mariners, and it culminated in a career year in 2023, finishing 16th in AL MVP en route to the first 5-WAR season of his career with a team-best 131 OPS+, his best mark by nearly 30 points.
Facing elimination in the division, Logan Gilbert delivered a quality start and the bullpen gave up no runs. Then, in the bottom of the ninth with two outs, Crawford drove a ball over the head of rookie left-fielder Evan Carter to score two runs and win the game for his team, 3-2. In my opinion, this walk-off gave the Mariners the most exciting playoff race moment for the second year in a row, rivaling Cal Raleigh’s magical playoff-clinching home run the year before.
However, this spark never caught, because after an 8-0 win over the Rangers the next day, they lost 1-6 in the penultimate game of the season and were eliminated. It was an uncharacteristic start for ace Luis Castillo, who was fifth in AL Cy Young voting and an All-Star in 2023. Castillo came to Seattle from the Cincinnati Reds at the deadline for a haul of young talent which included their no. 1-ranked prospect Noelvi Marté. It’s safe to say that the trade was and will be beneficial for both sides, but Seattle may have got the better end of the deal with Castillo.
In the end, it was a disappointing conclusion to a rather up-and-down season.
M-SABR Predicted Record (92-70) vs. Actual (88-74):
Harvey’s prediction for the Mariners in 2023 was nearly nailed, but the two game difference turned out to be what they needed to actually make the playoffs. The hitting was the weak point, because while they ranked top three in baseball in earned runs allowed and team ERA, they were outside of the top half of the league in team OPS and 12th in runs scored.
The Mariners have one of the best pitching staffs in baseball and a three-headed monster in Castillo, Gilbert, and Kirby, but they fell short because their lineup lacked the depth to go 1-9 every day with enough competence. It certainly did not help that the AL West is shaping up to be one of the toughest divisions in baseball, and while they did not find their way this past year, the Mariners will certainly be in the mix again in 2024.
Surprise of the Season:
Many Mariners seasons went about as expected, but the big surprise was the breakout year from shortstop J.P. Crawford. He has been reliable ever since coming over from Philadelphia but had never been more than a league-average hitter. He led the American League in walks and had an OPS above .800, which has likely cemented himself as a Mariner for years to come despite his poor defense.
Per Baseball Savant, Crawford ranked in the 95th percentile in chase rate, 86th percentile in whiff rate, and 96th percentile in walk rate. He has a great eye, but some of the other advanced statistics like barrel rate and average exit velocity were relatively low. A great year to be sure, but I don’t know if it is one he’s going to be able to replicate in its entirety down the road. At 29 years old, this may just end up being the best year of his career.
Players We Watched:
Player We Watched #1: CF Julio Rodríguez
There aren’t many players more fun to watch than Rodríguez. His age-22 season showed minimal signs of a sophomore slump, and he registered 714 plate appearances for the club, resulting in a second round of Silver Slugger awards, MVP votes, and another All-Star nod. J-Rod is one of the most exciting young players in the game playing a premier position.
Rodríguez tallied 180 hits, 32 HRs, and 103 RBIs, while finishing with an OPS+ of 128. He also stole 37 bases in 2023 and had 12 Outs Above Average (OAA) in center field. Rodríguez dominates all facets of the game, and with Shohei Ohtani out of the American League, it only seems more and more likely that he will be AL MVP.
Player We Watched #2: LF Jarred Kelenic
Highly-touted outfielder Jarred Kelenic finally put things together enough to produce a season when he actually contributed to his team. He played 105 games and likely would have seen more action if not for a foot fracture that took him out for August and parts of July and September. His improvements from 2021 to 2023 came from significant increases in expected batting average and hard hit rate.
While the season was much more of what the Mariners were hoping for from him, it seems that the club has seen all they needed from the 24-year-old. He struck out 132 times in 2023, putting him in the 7th percentile for K% and wasn’t really a positive in the outfield either. In the offseason, the Mariners sold high, as he was shipped alongside Marco Gonzales and Evan White to the Atlanta Braves for Jackson Kowar and Cole Phillips. An unceremonious end to a disappointing tenure in Seattle.
Player We Watched #3: SP Logan Gilbert
In his respective three years with the Mariners, starter Logan Gilbert has become an excellent and consistent player for the club. The 26-year-old racked up 189 strikeouts across 32 starts in 2023 to the tune of a 3.70 ERA. His 1.7 BB/9 ranked fourth in MLB, and the leader of that category is fellow teammate George Kirby. His best pitch in 2023 was a splitter, a new pitch which generated whiffs 34.7% of the time and had a tremendous xSLG against of .262.
While Logan Gilbert did not necessarily take another step forward in 2023 and arguably fell behind both Castillo and Kirby, I think that he has demonstrated his capacity to be a playoff pitcher for the Mariners. His expected ERA was the lowest it has ever been this year, and while he may not have superstar upside anymore, the volume and level he is pitching at makes him really valuable.
Offseason Outlook:
Following the season, President of Baseball Operations Jerry Dipoto controversially stated that the goal was to win 54% of games over the course of a decade. Many have been critical of his and the Mariners’ reluctance to spend (including players like Cal Raleigh), but he also defensively pointed out that they had signed the likes of Castillo, Rodríguez, and Ray to big contracts recently. His comments certainly aren’t promising and indicate that big spending on free agents really isn’t in the cards.
Seeing as they missed the playoffs, look to see some lateral moves to shake up the lineup and really determine who they want to be a part of their core. Anybody on offense not named Julio Rodríguez, Cal Raleigh, and J.P. Crawford could be moved, as they attempt to reduce their team strikeout rate. Jarred Kelenic, Eugenio Suárez, and Teoscar Hernández are all strike-out prone, and this is the problem that they are addressing.
What to Pay Attention to in the Future:
Despite missing the playoffs in 2023, the Mariners have a very bright future with a solid core that can only get better. Get ready to watch what could be considered the most entertaining division in the AL West as the Astros, Rangers, and Mariners fight it out. Who knows, maybe since the Astros won in 2022 and the Rangers won in 2023, the Mariners are due for some rings in 2024.
Additionally, I think that the 2024 Mariners hold some serious candidates for major awards. Of course, Julio Rodríguez will be in AL MVP contention, as he is a perennial All-Star. What I think is more likely, however, is Luis Castillo or George Kirby winning an AL Cy Young. The fiercest competition looks to be players like Gerritt Cole and Kevin Gausman, and that competition could diminish even further with a Dylan Cease trade. It would be great to see some major award winners in Seattle.
Categories: 2023 Season Review, Articles, Season Analysis
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