Check out my 2023 Season Preview Article for the Texas Rangers here.
2023 Record: 90-72 (.556 win%, t-1st in Division)
2023 Payroll: 251,332,754 (4th)
2023 Lineup:
1. 2B Marcus Semien (R), .276 AVG/.348 OBP/.478 SLG, 7.4 fWAR*
2. SS Corey Seager (L), .327 AVG/.390 OBP/.623 SLG, 6.9 fWAR
3. 1B Nathaniel Lowe (L), .262 AVG/.360 OBP/.414 SLG, 2.6 fWAR
4. RF Adolis García (R), .245 AVG/.328 OBP/.508 SLG, 4.2 fWAR
5. 3B Josh Jung (R), .266 AVG/.315 OBP/.467 SLG, 2.4 fWAR
6. C Jonah Heim (S), .258 AVG/.317 OBP/.438 SLG, 2.9 fWAR
7. LF Ezequiel Durán (R), .276 AVG/.324 OBP/.443 SLG, 0.9 fWAR
8. DH Mitch Garver (R), .270 AVG/.370 OBP/.500 SLG, 2.1 fWAR
9. CF Leody Taveras (S), .266 AVG/.312 OBP/.421 SLG, 2.6 fWAR
10. OF Robbie Grossman (S), .238 AVG/.340 OBP/.394 SLG, -0.1 fWAR
* indicates player led American League
2023 Rotation:
1. RHP Nathan Eovaldi, 144.0 IP/3.63 ERA/1.14 WHIP, 3.1 fWAR
2. RHP Dane Dunning, 172.2 IP/3.70 ERA/1.26 WHIP, 3.0 fWAR
3. RHP Jon Gray, 157.1 IP/4.12 ERA/1.29 WHIP, 2.2 fWAR
4. LHP Andrew Heaney, 147.1 IP/4.15 ERA/1.38 WHIP, 1.4 fWAR
5. LHP Martín Pérez, 141.2 IP/4.45 ERA/1.41 WHIP, 0.8 fWAR
2023 Top 4 Relievers:
1. LHP Will Smith, 57.1 IP/4.40 ERA/1.06 WHIP, 0.3 fWAR
2. RHP José Leclerc, 57.0 IP/2.68 ERA/1.14 WHIP, 1.4 fWAR
3. LHP Brock Burke, 59.2 IP/4.37 ERA/1.22 WHIP, 0.1 fWAR
4. RHP Josh Sborz, 52.1 IP/5.50 ERA/1.15 WHIP, -0.5 fWAR
A Celebration Story:
How will the 2023 Texas Rangers be remembered? Will it be an underdog story about a team no one thought could go all the way (except those confident fans down in Arlington)? Will it be about a team that bought its way to a ring? Or, will it be about an injury-ridden pitching staff, the best offense in the American League and the creation of a winning culture in just three years?
I’d say it’s a bit of all of the above, but for the first time in its 52-year history, the Texas Rangers have earned the crowning achievement of Major League Baseball. When the dust has settled, the bases have been cleared, the field has been swept for one last time and everyone heads home for the winter, all that remains is one team. So, let’s put all else aside and congratulate the 2023 World Champions.
Regular Season Recap:
The Rangers wasted no time proving people wrong in 2023, winning 35 of 55 games in their first two months of the regular season. While the pitching staff performed as expected, the team’s offensive explosion right out of the gate came as a surprise to many.
Pre-All-Star Break, shortstop Corey Seager proved to be a key name in the MVP race, posting an American League-leading batting average and a slash line of .353/.413/.613. At the time, his 1.026 OPS was second in all of the majors, only trailing the unwavering MVP frontrunner Shohei Ohtani (that guy pitches, too!)
Seager finished the season leading the league with 42 doubles and posting a 170 OPS+, an immense improvement from 2022, when he finished a solid 17% above league average. A late-season Ohtani Tommy John call gave Seager a sliver of a shot at MVP, finishing second to the Japanese superstar and one place ahead of the other half of the Rangers’ double play unit.
Marcus Semien wasn’t nearly as impressive as his fellow middle infielder in the first half of the season, totaling a still strong .776 OPS before the midsummer classic. The Rangers’ second baseman took a solid season to the next level in the second half, though, posting an .893 OPS in that period and finishing the season with the most plate appearances in the league for a fourth-straight full season (excluding the 2020 pandemic season).
Semien’s reliability and durability, undervalued skills in baseball media, would be key on any roster. For a postseason-bound team like Texas, Semien provides needed late-year consistency, something manager Bruce Bochy heavily values. Congrats to Semien on gaining the praise of one of the all-time great skippers, playing his third 162-game regular season, winning his sport’s ultimate prize and adding a baby girl to his growing family.
Other keys to the team’s pre-All-Star break offensive onslaught included outfielder Adolis García and rookie third baseman Josh Jung. At the midway point, Garcia led the MLB in RBIs (75) and paced the team’s home run efforts. Jung made the Rangers’ opening day roster after a decent stint on the big-league squad in ‘22 and took advantage of the opportunity, hitting for an .835 OPS and making his name an important one in the Rookie of the Year race.
The Rangers’ young star finished the regular season on a fairly low note but still posted a 109 OPS+ and added an admirable playoff performance. Jung finished fourth for AL ROTY when all set and done.
From a pitching standpoint, the Rangers saw strong first-half performances from starters Nathan Eovaldi (2.83 ERA in 117.2 innings), Dane Dunning (2.84 in 92.0 innings) and Jon Gray (3.29 in 93.0 innings). The bullpen performed strongly as well, en route to the squad having a first-place spot in the division heading into the Midsummer Classic.
However, the potential elite nature of the pitching staff the Rangers had on their hands was marred by a Jacob DeGrom torn UCL only six starts into his ‘23 campaign after coming off of shoulder surgery in ‘22. The rotation with DeGrom appeared unstoppable, as the elite arm only gave up four runs in 26.2 innings in the last five of his six starts. The loss, while seemingly probable when the Rangers signed the former Met to a five-year, $185 million contract, definitely hurt the team in the early season.
So, what did the Rangers do to replace their ace before the August 1st trade deadline? Oh, only trade for elite starters Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery.
Scherzer, a wily 39-year-old veteran starter with three Cy Young Awards and a World Series ring under his belt, was dealt to the Rangers by the New York Mets in an effort to cut payroll. The Mets agreed to send Scherzer to Texas and pay 60% of his salary in exchange for top prospect Luisangel Acuña, younger brother of this year’s National League MVP, Ronald Acuña Jr.
Scherzer hadn’t been having his best season up to the point of the trade, posting a 4.01 ERA over 107.2 innings with New York, but his experience (particularly in the playoffs) and the salary buffer was enough for General Manager Chris Young to pull the trigger. Scherzer pitched well for the Rangers (3.20 ERA in 45.0 innings); however, Mad Max’s summer was cut short by a muscle strain in his throwing arm.
For a second-straight season, 6’6” lefty Montgomery was dealt at the deadline, going from the Yankees to the Cardinals for elite defensive outfielder Harrison Bader a year prior. This time around, only a day after the Scherzer deal, Montgomery was sent from St. Louis to Arlington alongside right-handed reliever Chris Stratton in exchange for prospects, infielder Thomas Saggese and right-handed pitcher Tekoah Roby, and left-handed reliever John King.
Montgomery became a staple of the Rangers’ bullpen down the stretch, pitching for a 2.79 ERA in 67.2 innings with the squad and providing reliable innings in the playoffs. The big lefty will be a free agent this coming offseason.
The Rangers had already added yet another arm, flame-throwing left-handed reliever Aroldis Chapman. Lacking lefties out of the pen beyond closer Will Smith, GM Young decided to go after one of the hottest bullpen arms at the time. Chapman was acquired in exchange for solid starter and long-relief man Cole Ragans alongside a minor-league outfielder. With a seemingly good deal for both sides in the books, Chapman’s production fell off for Texas but was still very solid (3.72 ERA in 29.0 innings).
Thanks to the efforts of the added arms, Texas posted a 15-12 record in August, a month where the team’s offensive production was down. However, the bats picked the pace back up in September, leading the American League in home runs for the month and preparing the team for postseason play.
The regular season finale in the AL West was a much-watched, exciting pursuit for a division title. On September 19th, 12 games remaining in the regular season, the Rangers, Astros, and Mariners were tied for the division lead. Texas, in the next week, gained an edge over the other teams, as Seattle slowly fell out of the division race. However, Houston went on to win its final four games as the West title came down to the final day of the regular season.
On October 1st, at T-Mobile Park in Seattle, Dane Dunning and Martín Pérez combined for seven innings of one-run baseball. Unfortunately for the Rangers, though, the bats went uncharacteristically cold against the Mariners’ George Kirby, and the M’s took the regular season’s final game 1-0. Texas finished the season with a 90-72 record, losing the division to the Astros by tiebreaker.
M-SABR Predicted Record (80-82) vs. Actual (90-72):
So, I’m not overly upset about my 80-82 preseason record prediction. “They have what any good team needs to make a run” was the highlight of my season preview as it turns out; however, I just didn’t expect it to actually happen.
It’s not like the Rangers posted a 100-win season, either. I missed the mark by ten games and can attribute this to an offense that exceeded expectations in every way. The position group to watch before the season was the infield, which had a glaring hole at third base, Seager struggling to get on base, an underperformance from Semien in ‘22 and the worst defensive first baseman in the league.
Well, Jung more than filled the hole at third base in posting a fantastic rookie season, Seager became one of the best on-base hitters in the league, Semien played like Semien and Lowe won a (slightly undeserved) gold glove.
Add this up, and the Rangers had arguably the best infield in the league, a band of four players which set this squad apart. Congrats to the Rangers on exceeding my expectations. All the more reason to be bold next year!
Playoff Recap:
It had been seven years since the 2016 Rangers made the playoffs, the last postseason appearance for the organization. Up until they beat the Rays in this year’s Wild Card Series, the Rangers hadn’t won a playoff set since 2011, when they made a run to the World Series for a second-straight season.
Most notably, though, since the organization’s formation in 1972 (or 1961 if you’re counting the ol’ Washington Senators), the Texas Rangers had yet to win a World Series title. Well, they did it folks, so let’s check out the historic playoff run they took them there.
The newly-minted Wild Card Series had a Rangers team that fell short of their division by a tiebreaker facing the top Wild Card team in the Tampa Bay Rays. Luckily for Texas, though, Tampa was beat up across the diamond.
In game one, deadline deals paid off with Montgomery going seven innings scoreless, followed up by a shutdown inning from Chapman. Leclerc wrapped up the shutout 4-0 victory, while rookie outfielder Evan Carter proved his late-season worth. In his first career playoff game, Carter posted two doubles, two walks, and a run scored.
Game two was much of the same. Eovaldi threw 6.1 innings and gave up just one run, while the bats came to play in the 7-1 victory. Carter added a home run, alongside the team’s spark plug, Adolis García. Rookie third baseman Jung scratched two doubles and a triple in the effort, another key rookie playoff performance.
So, the Rangers went to Tropicana Field and made the Rays look quite poor on back-to–back nights, but the young and talented Baltimore Orioles squad would prove a greater test. Or would they?
Texas went into Baltimore, took the first two games against the American League’s number one-seeded team, then headed home to clinch another series sweep. Highlights included an 11-run game two for the Rangers’ offense; Mitch Garver hit a third-inning grand slam in a five-RBI night. As for game three, Eovadi threw another gem, this time allowing one run over seven innings in another 7-1 series-closing win.
So, the Rangers were 5-0 and already in the ALCS, showing down against the division and state rival Houston Astros. A much anticipated series did not disappoint, going all the way to a win-or-go-home game seven. Home field didn’t appear to be much of an advantage throughout the playoffs, and such was certainly the case for Texas. The Rangers never lost a single road game in the 2023 postseason.
Games one and two in Houston were closely-fought contests. Montgomery outdueled Justin Verlander in a game one 2-0 shutout, throwing 6.1 innings scoreless. In game two, Texas came out of the gate with a four-run first inning, but the Astros slowly clawed their way back as the game moved forward. However, Leclerc shut the door, recording the final four outs to send the team back to Arlington with a 2-0 series advantage.
Though there were some bright spots in the three-game set at Globe Life Field, the Rangers’ pitchers had very little success against a hot Astros lineup. Game five, the closest contest of the three, proved to be a particularly dire moment for the squad, losing the 5-4 game on a three-run José Altuve home run in the top of the ninth. Being outscored 23-12 in the set and giving away game five in the closing moments, Texas appeared to have lost all momentum while having to return to Houston for game six.
These next two games, for me, were the highlight of the postseason. Game six was an all-encompassing moment for the thriller that was the Rangers’ season. The game saw a third strong Eovaldi start and a shutdown backend bullpen the team relied upon throughout the entirety of 2023. The staff displayed resilience after three-straight tough games in Arlington. Leclerc, after giving up the Altuve home run a game prior, forced two scoreless outs in the bottom of the eighth to get back on track in a 4-2 game.
Heading into the ninth with just a two-run lead, the Rangers’ offense found its stride which it then carried into game seven. Adolis García hit yet another grand slam in a five-run ninth inning to win 9-2 in Houston.
The bats carried right over from the exciting ninth inning the night before, scoring three runs in the first and eight in the first four innings. Houston had no shot. García hit two more home runs in a four-hit, five-RBI effort and an 11-4 game seven victory and series clincher.
García, of course, won the ALCS MVP award, totaling five home runs – tied for the second most all-time in a single championship series (behind the six that Nelson Cruz hit for the Rangers in the 2011 ALCS).
Given the way games six and seven of the previous series went, the Arizona Diamondbacks, a surprise challenger, didn’t really stand much of a chance. The World Series truly felt over before it even started.
The Diamondbacks did put together a very strong two games in Arlington; the Rangers having home-field advantage for the first series in the playoffs, not that it mattered. Game one signaled the first time Eovaldi got roughed up this postseason, as Arizona scratched across five runs in the same number of frames against the righty.
However, the Rangers’ bullpen didn’t allow a single run for the remainder of the game, as starters Dunning and Gray were trotted out amongst Bochy’s masterclass on pen management. Nonetheless, Texas was down two runs going into the bottom of the ninth when Corey Seager, the star of this team all season, came up with a one-out two-run game-tying home run off of lights-out closer Paul Sewald.
Of course, the game ended in a fashion which a number of people could have guessed. Bottom of the 11th. Adolis García. Walk-off home run. Game one. Over.
Game two was rather forgettable for the Rangers coming off the high of the night before, a 9-1 loss which would mark the last defeat Texas would take in ‘23.
Game three, starters Scherzer and Gray split six innings scoreless as Seager hit another home run – a two-run bomb – in a 3-1 Rangers victory.
The next day, it took just three innings to suck the life out of Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona. In the second inning, Semien and Seager had four RBIs on a back-to-back triple and home run, respectively. Semien then added a three-run home run of his own in a second-straight five-run inning. The Diamondbacks battled back, scoring seven runs in the contest, but the 10-0 start was too much for them to handle, going down 11-7.
Game five wasn’t the most exciting series-clincher of all time, but it saw Eovaldi return to form for six scoreless frames. The game was a 1-0 battle until the top of the ninth inning when Semien hit a two-run homer to score Jonah Heim. They scored four runs in the innings and clinched their franchise’s premiere World Series title with a 5-0 victory.
The postseason truly was incredible for Texas (and Arizona), highlighting just how important getting into the playoffs is. Corey Seager deservingly took away the World Series MVP trophy, but Eovaldi was my key to making it through the muck of young and experienced teams throughout the playoffs.
The 33-year-old starter threw a team-leading 36.2 innings with a 2.95 ERA, 41 strikeouts, and a key 5-0 record. Although it may be an old-fashioned statistic, wins matter, especially in the postseason. Eovaldi consistently allowed the bullpen to rest, while holding teams to two or less runs in all but one outing. His performance shouldn’t come as a surprise as he holds an ERA just over 3.00 in 79.2 career playoff innings. Eovaldi’s a bulldog and my player of the postseason.
Surprise of the Season:
The Texas Rangers didn’t allow a single Rays, Orioles, Astros or Diamondbacks fan to enjoy a home win in the 2023 postseason. 11-0 on the road is impressive to say the least, but even more impressive was outscoring their opponents 71-29 in those games.
If you had told me before the season that the Texas Rangers would have won the World Series, I would have been surprised for sure, but could have seen a world in which it might happen. Now, if you told me they would go into Minute Maid Park for games six and seven of the ALCS and outscore the ‘Stros 20-6 to clinch a World Series berth, I wouldn’t have believed it.
While in truth, the entire playoffs had its share of wacky and wild, the Rangers performing the way they did with an injured, struggling Scherzer and so-so showings from Semien, Lowe and Heim is beyond surprising.
Players We Watched:
Player We Watched #1: SP Jacob DeGrom
“Darn, if the Rangers would’ve had a healthy DeGrom, they could’ve won the whole thing.” Luckily for the Rangers, they won it all anyway, which is quite crazy considering their best arm was shut down for the season with yet another torn UCL (requiring Tommy John surgery) only six starts into the 2023 campaign.
DeGrom was pitching well…again…before the injury. There was nothing indicating that he wasn’t going to be the DeGrom we all expect him to be, and there is nothing indicating that he won’t be the same when he’s healthy again. Even if DeGrom didn’t turn out to be as key of a loss as we may have expected in 2023, he likely would be if it happens again.
For the sake of baseball, we all want so badly for DeGrom to be healthy and perform as one of the elite pitchers in the league. Having thrown just over 250 innings over the last four seasons, though, doesn’t point in a great direction for the 35-year-old. Likely out for most of 2024 and with a contract that runs through his age-38 season, it will be interesting to see how the Rangers’ investment pays off.
Player We Watched #2: OF Bubba Thompson
So, maybe the young and speedy Bubba Thompson was not the most ideal player to highlight going into the 2023 season. There seemed to be an inkling of a thought before the season, though, that Thompson could take on a large number of games in left field for the squad.
In just two months on the Rangers roster, however, Thompson, as would figure, didn’t hit for power. Worse was his lack of a solid approach at the plate and an inability to put balls in play. And when he did, he was not finding grass. I honestly should have seen it coming, as he compiled at .389 BABIP in 2022, displaying his luck at the plate as a contact hitter.
As the luck faded early in the ‘23 campaign, Thompson found himself in Triple-A by June 2nd having compiled only nine hits in 53 at bats. On August 11th, Thompson was DFA’d by the organization, as even the minor league numbers weren’t living up to expectations.
The Royals claimed him, and his performance saw an incline in Triple-A Omaha. In the modern-day game, though, his lack of power plays against his ability to make it back to the major league level and sustain a career. Yes, he can be a great contact hitter and will always play defense and run the bases, but the bat is far too inconsistent.
The Reds claimed him early in this offseason, and they seem to have a newfound
knack for developing young talent. This may be the best case scenario for Thompson; however, it’s a long stretch for him to make an impact at the big-league level.
Player We Watched #3: RP Brock Burke
Burke is another fairly disappointing player we watched but one with a little more future potential than Thompson. The 27-year-old reliever came into the league in 2019 as a starter, returning to the minors, then shifting to the bullpen in 2022 when the Rangers brought in a number of arms.
His 1.97 ERA was marred by a 3.29 FIP in ‘22, pretty strong considering he was often throwing more than an inning out of the pen in each appearance, but a sign of a potential downturn in his production. We saw that in 2023.
With a mid-90s fastball without impressive movement, the lefty reliever was most successful when throwing his changeup. His high barrel rate and low whiff rate while paired with one of the lowest walk rates in the league showed his overuse of a fastball (nearly 70% of what he threw) that simply caught too much of the plate too often. This led to a serviceable, but lackluster 4.37 ERA in 59.2 innings.
No, Burke didn’t have the season we expected. However, his 2022 campaign displayed just how much potential this arm has. That season, his K-rate was in the top 25% of the league while his BB-rate had a showing in the middle of the pack as he attacked the zone more consistently. This is the type of approach I would like to see from Burke in 2024.
Offseason Outlook:
Well, it sounds like the Rangers will not be pursuing Ohtani, which is disappointing, sure, but not surprising at all. Simply put, Texas is already paying a lot of money and likely wouldn’t even consider forking over the $500 million it’s going to take to sign the most talented baseball player in history.
The Rangers head into the offseason with MLB’s fifth-highest payroll, an indication that they may go a little easier on the spending this winter. Offensively, much of the team is intact, with Mitch Garver being the only key player heading to free agency.
With Evan Carter solidifying himself in the team’s lineup, there isn’t an apparent hole anywhere across the diamond as of the end of 2023. I think, in terms of replacing Garver, the best route to go would be to retain the 32-year-old catcher. Having a backup for Heim who can also DH is a luxury, and the Rangers would have the best chance of landing Garver. It doesn’t appear there’s a better fit on the market.
With lefties Jordan Montgomery and Martín Pérez heading to free agency and DeGrom likely missing most of the 2024 season, you would think the Rangers would have a lack of arms heading into the offseason. However, GM Chris Young made it a point to load up on starting pitching, with the organization retaining the contracts of Scherzer, Gray, Eovaldi, Heaney and Dunning.
Given all here, apart from Heaney, are righty arms, I could see Young going out and looking for a fringe left-handed starter who could play in the rotation or out of the bullpen depending on the needs of the team.
The bullpen wasn’t very deep last year, and the additions of Chapman and Stratton proved important down the stretch. Both of these arms are heading to free agency, along with closer Will Smith and reliever Brett Martin (who missed the entirety of the 2023 season with injury).
All of these arms, apart from Stratton, are again lefties. The Rangers will no doubt head into the offseason looking for southpaw bullpen arms. Young has shown he’s not afraid to make a splash, so despite the squad’s already high payroll, a move for Josh Hader is not out of the question, though a deal for veteran Matt Moore seems more likely.
As noted, GM Young is not afraid to pay up for free agents. Though I could see an offseason where the Rangers sit back and let things unfold, basking in the glory of a championship, this doesn’t seem to be the character of the organization. They will keep moving forward with the rest of the league, spending money, and improving. When the World Series champs get better, the rest of the league should be worried.
What to Pay Attention to in the Future:
Well…can they do it again? The Rangers can win 50 games next season or 110, and it won’t change the fact that they are the 2023 World Series Champions. But wouldn’t it be fun, Rangers fans, to run it back and win it again?
In just over a decade, the MLB playoffs have expanded from eight to twelve teams, and with it has come a new age of postseason baseball. What the Rangers, alongside the 2022 Padres and Phillies and the 2023 Diamondbacks, have shown is that anyone can win. “Just get in” is the phrase. This makes repeating more difficult than ever before, as a six seed that was just over .500 in the regular season looks to upset a division winner in a best-of-three wild card series.
For the Rangers, they have the fourth-best chance of earning another title, according to the way-too-early betting odds. They will go into 2024 as a favorite, and in recent times, this is not the key to taking the crown. Still, the AL West has a core top three that will be tough to come out on the top of. We’ll see what Texas can do.
Categories: 2023 Season Review, Articles, Season Analysis
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