Check out Armaan Bhaskar’s 2023 Season Preview Article for the Atlanta Braves here.
Image: Stefan Milic / Yahoo Sports
2023 Record: 104-58 (.642 win%, 1st in Division)
2023 Payroll: $206,239,131 (10th)
2023 Lineup:
1. RF – Ronald Acuña Jr., .337 AVG/.416 OBP/.596 SLG, 8.1 fWAR
2. 2B – Ozzie Albies, .280 AVG/.336 OBP/.513 SLG, 4.7 fWAR
3. 3B – Austin Riley, .281 AVG/.345 OBP/.516 SLG, 5.9 fWAR
4. 1B – Matt Olson, .283 AVG/.389 OBP/.604 SLG, 7.4 fWAR
5. DH – Marcell Ozuna, .274 AVG/.346 OBP/.558 SLG, 3.3 fWAR
6. C – Sean Murphy, .251 AVG/.365 OBP/.478 SLG, 3.9 fWAR
7. LF – Eddie Rosario, .255 AVG/.305 OBP/.450 SLG, 1.1 fWAR
8. SS – Orlando Arcia, .264 AVG/.321 OBP/.420 SLG, 1.6 fWAR
9. CF – Michael Harris II, .293 AVG/.331 OBP/.477 SLG, 3.4 fWAR
10 (UTL). C – Travis d’Arnaud, .225 AVG/.288 OBP/.387 SLG, 0.2 fWAR
2023 Rotation:
1. Spencer Strider, 186.2 IP/3.86 ERA/1.093 WHIP, 3.4 fWAR
2. Bryce Elder, 174.2 IP/ 3.81 ERA/1.277 WHIP, 2.9 fWAR
3. Charlie Morton, 163.1 IP/3.64 ERA/1.427 WHIP, 3.1 fWAR
4. Max Fried, 77.2 IP/2.55 ERA/1.133 WHIP, 2.7 fWAR
5. Jared Shuster, 52.2 IP/5.81 ERA/1.500 WHIP, -0.1 fWAR
2023 Top 4 Relievers:
1. Raisel Iglesias, 55.2 IP/2.75 ERA/1.186 WHIP, 1.2 fWAR
2. A.J. Minter, 63.2 IP/3.76 ERA/1.191 WHIP, 0.9 fWAR
3. Kirby Yates, 60.1 IP/3.28 ERA/1.193 WHIP, 1.1 fWAR
4. Joe Jiménez, 56.1 IP/3.04 ERA/1.154 WHIP, 0.9 fWAR
Regular Season Recap:
The Atlanta Braves had yet another tremendous regular season. As expected, yet, it is hard to consistently perform at the level they have been the past few years. The Braves posted a second consecutive 100-plus win season en route to a historic regular season. They put together another banner-worthy year as they ran away with the NL East, winning another division title by 14 games over the Philadelphia Phillies. Make that six straight division titles for the Atlanta Braves.
The Braves performed about as you would expect for a team of this caliber. A roster filled with All-Stars and generational talent is hard to compete with. This proved true, as the Braves were a force to be reckoned with in the regular season. They ultimately completed one of the most historically successful seasons in their franchise history.
The offense lived up to the hype this year producing a previously unthinkable .501 slugging percentage, while averaging 5.8 runs during the 162-game regular season. The stars showed out in a big way, and proved why this team is as elite as advertised. A lineup that lived up to the hype, coupled with an elite pitching staff, is the reason why this team was able to be so successful this season.
Ronald Acuña Jr. completed his miraculous comeback and was a large contributor to the success of this team. They seemed almost invincible at times. The team blasted a total of 307 home runs, an MLB record. All in all, the team showed why they are again and again recognized as one of the best teams in the league.
M-SABR Predicted Record (95-67) vs. Actual (104-58):
The 2023 M-SABR predicted record provided an insightful look into the 2023 season. Overall, the prediction was accurate to what actually transpired this year. The previous prediction allotted nine fewer wins than the actual total, which is reasonable considering the year they had in 2022 and the pieces lost in the offseason.
There were some valid claims in the prediction as well. Such as, “I expect the lineup to continue producing at an elite level with a resurgent Ronald Acuña along with newcomer Sean Murphy. The rotation will also continue producing at an elite level with a full season of Spencer Strider, though I expect Kyle Wright to experience a slight regression.”
Although there were some injuries to the pitching rotation, they performed at a level in which they were able to win over 100 games for the second season in a row. Ronald Acuña and Sean Murphy showed out as expected. The rest of the team picked up the slack this season, even with the loss of Dansby Swanson and Kenley Jansen. Overall, another successful regular season for the Atlanta Braves.
Playoff Recap:
For the second year in a row, the Braves clinched a first-round bye in the playoffs. This year as the number one overall seed, as opposed to being number two last year to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Just like last year, Atlanta faced off with the Philadelphia Phillies in the NLDS. For the second straight year, the Phillies sent them home.
Philadelphia seems to almost be the Braves kryptonite, as they defeated Atlanta in only four games in those back-to-back seasons. The Braves seemed almost intimidated at both the plate and on the mound. Atlanta fell short of the NLCS in yet another disappointing postseason run.
Surprise of the Season:
It’s hard not to name Marcell Ozuna as the biggest surprise of the season for the Atlanta Braves. He proved himself on countless occasions this season after much doubt and negativity surrounding his decisions and off-field issues.
He could have been released numerous times in the past year and a half and nobody would have batted an eye. He dealt with legal trouble, being arrested twice in the span of a year and a half. This added pressure caused his on-field production to plummet. Ozuna was hitting .085 in April, a terrible line for someone of his talent.
To the surprise of many, Ozuna turned his season around. Finishing with a .274 average, .346 on-base percentage, .558 SLG, and 3.3 fWAR. He was the best designated hitter this season outside of Shohei Ohtani. In addition, Marcell blasted a career-high 40 home runs, along with 100 runs batted in, and 145 hits. These stats rival some of Ozuna’s best years in the league, a tremendous feat considering the cards stacked against him and his rocky start to the season.
Ozuna proved yet again how he is a force to be reckoned with in this league. His rejuvenated presence in this Braves lineup helped them tremendously. Contributing in a large way to this record-setting season. Marcell has elevated himself in the minds of many Braves fans and asserted himself as one of the biggest surprises of this 2023 season.
Players We Watched:
Breaking down last year’s “Players to Watch” section is quite an easy task after the historic season Ronald Acuña Jr. put together this year. It was presumed that Ronald would return from his ACL injury and perform at a high-caliber level this season. He returned mid-season last year and was average at best. Not quite the caliber of baseball that he is acquainted with.
This lull was expected to change as he began a full 162-game season with no injuries or hindrances. The preseason breakdown even went as far as to say, “With a full offseason and a tune-up in the World Baseball Classic, expect Acuña to threaten the exclusive 40 home runs 40 stolen base club.” Threaten the 40-40 club he did.
Ronald swiped 73 bags and blasted 41 home runs. Calling this a historic season would be an understatement. This has never happened before… in the history of baseball! In addition to that, there are only four other players who are a part of the 40/40 club. Among these four, the previous high for steals was 46 by Alex Rodríguez in 1998. Acuña’s 41 homers are 13 more than the next closest player with 70 steals, Rickey Henderson. This truly highlights the unbelievable feat Ronald completed with this 40/70 season.
Spencer Strider was predicted to improve upon a strong 2022 season. Spencer performed well this year. Somewhat of a step back from the previous year ERA-wise, but still a strong performer as the number one in this tough Braves rotation. He posted a 20-5 record as a starter; a great line for someone in their second season. Strider held down a strong staff and showed his dominance along the way, contributing greatly to the Braves 100+ win season for a second straight year.
Offseason Outlook:
Quite frankly, the Atlanta Braves don’t need to do much this offseason. With most major pieces under guaranteed contract, the Braves are in position to continue their dominance going forward. The team will retain Austin Riley, Matt Olson, Spencer Strider, Sean Murphy, Michael Harris II, Ronald Acuña Jr., Raisel Iglesias, Marcell Ozuna, Ozzie Albies, Travis d’Arnaud, Orlando Arcia, and Tyler Matzek going into the next season.
Don’t expect the Braves to be too active during free agency this year. With that being said, the Braves may attempt to pursue both Jack Flaherty and Lucas Giolito. This would reunite Max Fried with his high school teammates in Atlanta. While this is a long shot and what most would call a bold prediction, there is still the possibility the Braves pursue both to strengthen the rotation.
Overall, this team does not need to get better with offseason acquisitions. They need to figure out how to win in the playoffs when it counts. That starts internally. They have shown their dominance in the regular season, they just need to figure out how to translate that into postseason success. Realistically, this team cannot get much better in the offseason. The playoffs are so often a crapshoot. Given that we aren’t in the clubhouse, we don’t know if there are real problems plaguing this team, or if it’s just rotten luck. Only time will tell.
Categories: 2023 Season Review, Articles, Season Analysis
M-SABR 
Leave a comment