2023 Record: 90-72 (.556 win%, t-1st in Division)
2023 Payroll: $236,707,748 (7th)
2023 Lineup:
1. 2B Jose Altuve, .311 AVG/.393 OBP/.522 SLG, 4.0 fWAR
2. 3B Alex Bregman, .262 AVG/.363 OBP/.441 SLG, 4.3 fWAR
3. RF Kyle Tucker, .284 AVG/.369 OBP/.517 SLG, 4.9 fWAR
4. DH Yordan Alvarez, .293 AVG/.407 OBP/.583 SLG, 4.5 fWAR
5. 1B José Abreu, .237 AVG/.296 OBP/.383 SLG, -0.7 fWAR
6. LF Chas McCormick, .273 AVG/.353 OBP/.489 SLG, 3.8 fWAR
7. SS Jeremy Peña, .263 AVG/.324 OBP/.381 SLG, 2.8 fWAR
8. CF Jake Meyers, .227 AVG/.296 OBP/.382 SLG, 1.7 fWAR
9. C Martín Maldonado, .191 AVG/.258 OBP/.348 SLG, -1.3 fWAR
10. UT Mauricio Dubón, .278 AVG/.309 OBP/.411 SLG, 1.9 fWAR
11. C/DH Yainer Diaz, .282 AVG/.308 OBP/ .538 SLG, 2.0 fWAR
2023 Rotation:
1. Framber Valdez, 198.0 IP/3.45 ERA/1.13 WHIP, 4.3 fWAR
2. Christian Javier, 162.0 IP/4.56 ERA/1.27 WHIP, 1.9 fWAR
3. Hunter Brown, 155.2 IP/5.09 ERA/1.36 WHIP, 1.8 fWAR
4. J.P. France, 136.1 IP/3.83 ERA/1.36 WHIP, 1.3 fWAR
5. Brandon Bielak, 80.0 IP/3.83 ERA/1.53 WHIP, 0.1 fWAR
(SP Justin Verlander was acquired at the deadline: 68.0IP/3.31 ERA/1.12 WHIP, 3.3 total fWAR between Mets and Astros)
2023 Top 4 Relievers:
1. Ryan Pressly, 65.1 IP/3.58 ERA/1.07 WHIP, 1.1 fWAR
2. Bryan Abreu, 72.0 IP/1.75 ERA/1.04 WHIP, 1.5 fWAR
3. Hector Neris, 68.1 IP/1.71 ERA/1.05 WHIP, 0.8 fWAR
4. Rafael Montero, 67.1 IP/5.08 ERA/1.53 WHIP, 0.1 fWAR
Regular Season Recap:
Following their second World Series win in franchise history, the Astros were set to face a much more competitive AL West, but were still by far the favorites to win the division. Even though the loss of Verlander in free agency hurt, they spent big on 1B Jose Abreu and hoped some young pitchers could fill the spot left by JV, but other teams in the division had more impactful offseasons.
The Rangers bolstered their rotation with DeGrom, Heaney, and Eovaldi. The Mariners added to a solid core trading for Teoscar Hernandez and Kolten Wong, and the Angels tooled up for one last push with Ohtani with acquisitions of Brandon Drury and Gio Urshela, among others (though, those additions didn’t end up working out in the slightest).
No one would have guessed how competitive the AL West truly was this year, however, as the trio of the Rangers, Mariners, and Astros were all in the playoff race deep into the season, and the division came down to the final day of the season.
The Astros had a bad start, even before their first regular season game. While representing his native Venezuela in the World Baseball Classic, Altuve was hit by a pitch and suffered a thumb fracture, requiring surgery. Altuve missed a little under two months of the season, and the Astros went 24-19 in the time that he missed largely due to the admirable job done by Mauricio Dubon filling in at second base in Altuve’s absence.
This pattern of injuries continued throughout the year, as many key pieces spent time on the IL. Lance McCullers Jr. was lost for the year after flexor tendon surgery repairing an injury suffered in spring training, Luis Garcia needed to undergo Tommy John after only six starts, Michael Brantley only played 15 games at the end of the season after recovering from shoulder surgery, and Jose Urquidy also missed lots of time with a shoulder injury of his own. On top of these lengthy injuries, Chas McCormick, Yordan Alvarez, and Jose Abreu, among others, all spent time on the IL.
With all of these injuries, many unlikely contributors helped out to keep the Astros in contention with the Rangers, who started the season red hot. Players like Corey Julks, Jake Meyers, and the aforementioned Mauricio Dubon all played 90+ games, while rookie pitchers J.P. France and Hunter Brown filled in for the injured rotation.
The Astros ended the first half 50-41, after a great month of May where they went 17-10 before cooling down again, finishing under .500 for June. They then reached another level, going 27-18 between the all star game and the trade deadline, making up much needed ground on the Rangers.
At the deadline, the Astros had one clear need, starting pitching. They found a perfect trade partner in the underperforming Mets, and reunited with Verlander at the cost of two of their top 5 prospects. Verlander performed well in his return to Houtson, posting a 128 ERA+ on top of 1.3 WAR in his 11 starts.
By the time September rolled around, the Astros had played 23 games within 1 game of first place, and hadn’t spent any time alone in that spot. This was in large part due to the Astros’ uncharacteristic struggles at home. The Astros finished 2023 with a 29-42 record at home, the only playoff team with a losing record at home, and the only team with a record above .500 with a losing record at home besides the Reds.
These struggles even culminated in adding more green paint to the right side of the batter’s eye in an attempt to fix some of the struggles. The Astros had a team OPS 60 that was points lower at home, though their pitchers also performed worse in Houston for some reason.
Despite a losing record in the month of September, the Astros were still able to clinch the AL West with a sweep of the Arizona Diamondbacks on the final day of the season. The Astros and Rangers finished with the same record of 90-72, but the Astros held the season series tiebreaker over the Rangers after finishing 9-4 against their interstate rival, including six wins at Globe Life stadium, demonstrating the Astros’ road dominance this year.
Even with a winning season, many were critical of Dusty Baker’s lineups throughout the year, mostly in regard to his use of breakout hitter Chas McCormick, and rookie sensation Yainer Diaz. Though both had incredible seasons, they often found themselves on the bench behind players they were outperforming.
Both situations were discussed often, with rumors of Baker being unhappy with McCormick’s weight to which Baker responded “As far as his weight is concerned, if I had something against his weight — and you can ask him — I wouldn’t bring him banana pudding once a week,” a 100% real quote about why he wasn’t playing his star center fielder.
Baker’s usage of young catcher Yainer Diaz even frustrated GM Dana Brown, stating he’d “like to see him in the lineup more.” Instead, Baker compared Diaz to a young quarterback, saying Yainer would “thank [him] later” for his playing time. Diaz, acquired from Cleveland in 2021 for Miles Straw, burst onto the scene this year after making the opening day roster as the backup catcher.
Despite being considered the second best catcher in the organization behind Korey Lee, Diaz continued his breakout from last year at the major league level. He was one of the best offensive catchers in MLB this year, posting a 127 WRC+, and leading all qualified catchers in slugging. He also excelled behind the plate in all metrics besides framing, placing in at least the 80th percentile in blocks above average, CS above average, and pop time.
For such a good year, it makes sense why some in the Astros organization might be frustrated with Baker leaving him on the bench for statistically one of the worst players in the league, Martin Maldonado.
The truth is, the team still had a great season, resulting in a first round bye, but especially in the playoffs it will become ever more important for Dusty to play his studs if they hope to repeat.
Playoff Recap:
Winning the division gave the Astros a first round bye, and they would play the winner of the Twins Blue Jays series, which the Twins swept. The Astros handled the Twins in four, only losing game two to former Astro Carlos Correa’s three-hit, three-RBI game. Game Four was a close 3-2 affair, but 3.1 scoreless innings from the combination of Neris, Abreu, and Pressly sent the Astros to the ALCS to play their division rival.
The ALCS showed many of the same issues they had in the regular season, as they quickly found themselves in a 2-0 hole after losing the first two games on the road. In game one, the Astros offense was dominated by Jordan Montgomery, and while they were able to at least put up some runs in game two, they weren’t able to overcome a quick 5-1 deficit after Framber Valdez allowed four first inning runs.
Once leaving the city limits, the Astros’ bats woke up again, winning Game Three and Four, 8-5 and 10-3, respectively. They took advantage of bad starts by Scherzer in his first game back from injury, and Heaney who couldn’t even make it through a whole inning. Looking to take a series lead back home, the Astros held a 2-1 advantage until Adolis Garcia hit a three-run bomb off of Verlander and pimped it like very few can in MLB.
This didn’t sit well with the Astros, as reliever Bryan Abreu plunked Garcia in his next at bat, causing the benches to clear and leading to the ejection of both managers, as well as the pitcher and batter.
Following the drama, the Astros staged a rally in the next half inning, pinch hitters Yainer Diaz and Jon Singleton reached, and Altuve did as he always does in the playoffs and hit a go-ahead, game-winning, three-run homer following Ryan Pressley’s scoreless ninth inning. Martín Maldonado credited Garcia’s reaction to the 8th inning HBP for the rally, stating “The worst thing he did was wake up the Houston Astros.”
With more fire added to the division rivalry, Garcia and the Rangers dominated the Astros in Houston. The Rangers won Game Six, highlighted by an Adolis Garcia grand slam in the 9th to make the score 9-2, and he wasn’t done taking revenge on the Astros.
The Rangers then started Game Seven hot, scoring three in the first inning on a Corey Seager HR, and RBI-singles by Mitch Garver, and Adolis Garcia of course. Garcia continued his domination, adding another RBI-single and two solo homers. The Rangers took Game Seven 11-4, reaching their first World Series since 2011.
Though the Astros reached their seventh consecutive ALCS, it’s hard to see this season as a success with their high expectations coming into the season, and losing all of their home games in the series.
Surprise of the Season:
Chas McCormick had been a decent player for his first two years in MLB prior to this season, a good defender, and solid platoon bat as most of his value came when facing lefties, but almost no one could’ve predicted the breakout he had. McCormick finished 2023 with 3.8 fWAR (including a down September/October), posting a 133 WRC+ and above average defending in both LF and CF. In a team battered by injuries, McCormick stepped up big time to help carry the offense, and notably increased his OPS vs righties by over 100 points from 2022.
Much like last year, McCormick did most of his damage vs four-seam fastballs. Among players who saw over 500 four-seamers this year, his SLG of .745 was second best (out of 203), trailing only Shohei Ohtani. Not much changed from a batted ball perspective besides a slightly higher average launch angle and a higher Sweet Spot% (% of batted balls between eight and thirty-two degrees), but the expected stats still back up his offensive explosion. If McCormick can pick up next year with this kind of production, this already dangerous Houston lineup will become even more scary.
Players We Watched:
Jose Abreu
Following Yuli Gurriel’s departure to Miami, the Astros had a hole at first base, and filled it with a former MVP on a 3 year, 58.5 million contract hoping for another solid bat in the middle of the order. Abreu did not live up to expectations at all, posting a -0.6 fWAR, and posting his first season with a below average WRC+ at 86.
Abreu’s hard hit rate dropped by 10%, strikeout rate rose by 5%, and his chase% rose to 36.3%. Additionally he finished with -5 OAA at first base, rounding out an overall dreadful year that he’ll hope to bounce back from in his second season as an Astro
Christian Javier
With the loss of Justin Verlander to free agency, many were looking for Javier to follow his breakout 3.3 WAR 2022 season with another solid campaign. Javier was plagued by the long ball this year, as he allowed 25 home runs this year. He still had a solid season, but his K% of 33% from last year was almost impossible to follow up, as only Spencer Strider posted a higher K% this year.
Some of his step back could be attributed to a BABIP of .272 against him (30 points higher than his career average), but that could also be attributed to a spike in hard hit balls against him. Javier had a wonderful postseason however, keeping up hope that he can continue to be a solid contributor for the Astros in the years to come.
Jeremy Peña
Peña had as good of a rookie season as he could’ve ever hoped for, winning a gold glove and World Series MVP. Hopes were high for him to continue his major league success in his Sophomore season, but in many ways Peña took a step back. Peña finished as a below average hitter (96 WRC+ compared to 102 last year), especially lacking in the power department.
After a 22-homer season, he only managed to hit 10 this year, and his SLG dropped by 60 points. This did come with a better walk rate and less strikeouts, so there seemed to be some benefits to his new approach. Surprisingly he took a step back defensively as well, still finishing as an above average defensive shortstop, but not the incredible numbers he put up last season (16 DRS→7; 7 OAA→3).
Offseason Outlook:
The Astros don’t have many holes in their roster, and have no stars hitting free agency. The Astros should definitely bring back Hector Neris (if he opts out) and Phil Maton to keep the bullpen solid, and should consider bringing back Brantley though his health and age at this point is a concern.
Besides that, many of their issues are solved by getting healthy again, but could combat future issues with health by signing a cheap backend starter who could also help out in the bullpen like Alex Wood, who also fills a team need for a lefty reliever.
Martín Maldonado is also a pending free agent and it will be interesting to see if the Astros bring him back once again, or hand over the reins to Yainer Diaz.
Something to Watch:
Following the Astros’ Game Seven loss to the Rangers, reports started to come out about Dusty Baker’s future in baseball. They were stating he’d be stepping away from management following this season. He reportedly had told many people—both in and out of the organization—that this season would be his last. Two days following Game Seven, Dusty officially announced that his managerial career would be over, and he would retire.
Dusty Baker’s contract was up following this season anyway, and with some frustration in the Astros’ front office over his use of some players, they were reportedly looking for Dusty’s potential successor near the end of the regular season.
He was the oldest manager in the bigs, with 26 years of management experience. The Astros’ managerial vacancy will now be one of the most sought after jobs in the offseason. The Astros could look outside of the organization for their hire, or bench coach Joe Espada, who has received plenty of interest in managerial searches, could be an in-house replacement.
Categories: 2023 Season Review, Articles, Season Analysis
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