Check out Jake Singer’s 2023 Season Preview Article for the Blue Jays here.
Image: Steven Bisig / USA TODAY Sports
2023 Record: 89-73 (.549 win%, 3rd in Division)
2023 Payroll: $214,630,885 (9th)
2023 Lineup:
1. C Alejandro Kirk, .250 AVG/.334 OBP/.358 SLG, 1.6 fWAR
2. 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr., .264 AVG/.345 OBP/.444 SLG, 1.0 fWAR
3. 2B Whit Merrifield, .272 AVG/.318 OBP/.382 SLG, 1.5 fWAR
4. 3B Matt Chapman, .240 AVG/.330 OBP/.424 SLG, 3.5 fWAR
5. SS Bo Bichette, .306 AVG/.339 OBP/.475 SLG, 3.8 fWAR
6. LF Daulton Varsho, .220 AVG/.285 OBP/.389 SLG, 2.1 fWAR
7. CF Kevin Kiermaier, .265 AVG/.322 OBP/.419 SLG, 2.2 fWAR
8. RF George Springer, .258 AVG/.327 OBP/.405 SLG, 2.2 fWAR
9. DH Brandon Belt, .254 AVG/.369 OBP/.490 SLG, 2.3 fWAR
10. UT Cavan Biggio, .235 AVG/.340 OBP/.370 SLG, 1.0 fWAR
11. C Danny Jansen, .228 AVG/.312 OBP/.474 SLG, 2.0 fWAR
2023 Rotation:
1. Chris Bassitt, 200.0 IP/3.60 ERA/1.175 WHIP, 2.6 fWAR
2. Jose Berrios, 189.2 IP/3.65 ERA/1.186 WHIP, 3.0 fWAR
3. Kevin Gausman, 185.0 IP/3.16 ERA/1.178 WHIP, 5.3 fWAR
4. Yusei Kikuchi, 167.2 IP/3.86 ERA/1.270 WHIP, 2.6 fWAR
5. Alek Manoah, 87.1 IP/5.87 ERA/1.740 WHIP, -0.4 fWAR
2023 Top 4 Relievers:
1. Jordan Romano, 59.0 IP/2.90 ERA/1.220 WHIP, 1.2 fWAR
2. Yimi Garcia, 66.0 IP/4.09 ERA/1.242 WHIP, 1.0 fWAR
3. Erik Swanson, 66.2 IP/2.97 ERA/1.095 WHIP, 0.9 fWAR
4. Tim Mayza, 53.1 IP/1.52 ERA/1.219 WHIP, 1.3 fWAR
Regular Season Recap:
You know, in certain aspects, baseball fandom is a lot like life in general. There are incredible moments of Earth-shattering bliss that make all of this worth it (not unlike what I imagine Arizona Diamondbacks fans are feeling in the midst of their miraculous World Series run), but most of the time there’s this lingering sense of disappointment. A dull ache that grounds us in reality, that reminds us of just how fleeting those aforementioned highs are. Anyway, we’re here to talk about the 2023 Toronto Blue Jays.
I chose to write about the Jays because one of my close friends is a pretty massive fan, and in talking to him enough this year, I feel like I’ve experienced all of the ups and downs, frustrations and successes, and just overall weirdness of this team for myself, even if on a smaller scale.
Most Jays fans, like in 2022, were probably left with a feeling of “that’s it?” Which is somewhat understandable, because while the team ended both the 2022 and 2023 regular seasons with a wild-card berth, this was certainly a team that aspired to much more both times. The quiet (well at least this year) whimper that they emitted in the postseason was indicative of a team that often fell short of expectations, and for lack of a better way to put it, never seemed to be quite right.
The team got off to a promising start, posting an 18-10 record by the end of April, including winning 6-of-7 to close the month. The story of their April has to be 3B Matt Chapman, who accumulated the majority of his 3.5 fWAR in that month. Chapman ended up winning AL Player of the Month, batting .384 across 114 PA with 15 2B, 5 HRs, 21 RBIs, an OPS of 1.152, and an sOPS+ of 215.
It was truly an incredible month, and what looked like the start of a special season for Chapman, who was in a contract year, and had shown in the past that he was capable of elite production. If you’re reading this article, though, you no doubt know that this was not the outcome of Chapman’s season, much to likely yours and surely the Blue Jays organization’s chagrin.
Chapman didn’t just fall back to Earth after his impressive April, he fell right through the damn planet. Besides a brief resurgence in July (.908 OPS in 102 PA), Chapman never posted an OPS above .633 in any month the rest of the season, while also being one of the least clutch hitters in baseball, “slugging” his way to a high leverage slash of .173/.285/.236/.521 across 130 PA, ranking third worst among all players with at least 500 PA overall in 2023.
While he was still elite with the glove, and his April combined with past elite production (now five years in the rearview mirror by the start of the 2024 season) will likely still fool some team into giving him a decently large pay day, make no mistake. Matt Chapman had a disastrous contract year.
As it turns out, April would not only be the peak of Matt Chapman’s season, but the Blue Jays’ season in general. Starting on April 30, the Blue Jays began one of their two 5-game losing streaks on the season, the other one also occurring in May, losing five straight from May 18-May 22 in the middle of a stretch where the Jays dropped 9-of-11 games to the Yankees, Orioles, and Rays.
This was indicative of one of the main pitfalls of the Blue Jays’ season, that being their play against their own division. The Blue Jays went a combined 21-31 (.404) against the rest of the AL East in 2023, which means that against all other opponents, the Blue Jays went 68-42 (.618).
Other than the sheer quality of their division (yes, despite their 0-7 record in the 2023 Postseason, this division was very obviously historically good), I can’t think of a good reason for the vast chasm between the performance of the 2023 Toronto Blue Jays against their own division, versus the rest of the MLB.
Another interesting thing to look at regarding the 2023 Toronto Blue Jays is their activity around the trade deadline. The Jays’ front office seemed to be particularly impressed with a number of St. Louis Cardinals players this season, as they made all three of their trade deadline moves with the Cardinals as their partner in crime. On July 21, the Blue Jays acquired left-handed reliever Génesis Cabrera from the Cardinals in exchange for 19-year old A ball catcher Sammy Hernandez.
No doubt, the Jays goal with Cabrera was to take some of the pressure and work-load off of–at the time–their only other lefty bullpen arm, Tim Mayza. What is also clear, is that the Blue Jays saw something in Cabrera that wasn’t evident from his 5.02 ERA and 1.563 WHIP across 32.0 IP or his 5.1 BB/9 on the year, because Cabrera was a reliable lefty-on-lefty out-getter for most of the rest of the season. Though he faltered in September, Cabrera still posted a 2.66 ERA and 0.972 WHIP over 29 appearances and 23.2 IP.
The Jays went back to the Cardinals well just nine days later and on July 30, they acquired right-handed reliever Jordan Hicks in exchange for AA right-handed pitchers Sem Robberse and Adam Kloffenstein. This was done to shore up the bullpen after closer Jordan Romano went on the IL. After a rough start to the season, the flame-throwing Hicks was having a nice season by the time the Blue Jays acquired him, and largely continued to do so. Hicks pitched to a 2.63 ERA with a 1.083 WHIP in 24.0 IP across 25 appearances for the Jays.
So we’ve seen that the Blue Jays were willing to go out and get the pieces that they needed to help make sure that their bullpen would not become an obstacle to their World Series aspirations. Surely they did the same for their hitting that had taken a step back compared to 2021 and 2022, right?
*Deafening cricket noises*
“Oh, uh, they traded for Paul DeJong, I guess. Do I really have to talk about Paul DeJong? Ugh, fine.”
On deadline day, the Blue Jays traded for once-promising Cardinals SS Paul DeJong. After an impressive rookie season in 2017, which saw DeJong nab RoY-2, DeJong has mostly only regressed. The only exception to this being a 30 HR season in 2019, where he still managed to only be around a league-average bat, but was still worth 3.7 fWAR due to an sparkling 24 DRS at SS.
Since then, DeJong has been mediocre when he has been on the field, which has not been a guaranteed thing due to injuries and performance-based benchings. He did, however, show signs of life early on this season in late April and early May. Unfortunately, once DeJong was traded to the Blue Jays, he became just about the worst hitter on the face of the Earth.
In a tenure that lasted just 13 games, DeJong went 3/44 (.068) at the plate with 3 singles, 18 Ks, and 0 BB. All of this translated into a .136 OPS and a -62 OPS+. Folks, I’m sure I don’t need to tell you that this is a nearly incomprehensibly disastrous stretch. Despite all of this, the Jays went 8-5 in games that Paul DeJong played in, only reinforcing the fact that baseball doesn’t make any sense.
Outside of the peak of their season in April and the trough in May, the 2023 Blue Jays were remarkably consistent, even if they weren’t consistently remarkable. They had 14 or 16 wins in every full month from June onwards.
I’ve somewhat dug into this team thus far, and while I feel that it’s warranted, we (I) should try to remember that this team still won 89 games. This was still a good team, even if they fell short of expectations. While they were frustratingly inconsistent at the plate, falling short of their top 5 offensive team performance in 2022, this sentiment couldn’t be further from the truth in regards to pitching.
Pitching was this team’s greatest strength, showcased by the healthiest starting rotation in baseball. 2023 saw three Toronto Blue Jays (Bassitt, Berrios, and Gausman) go over 180 innings. The Jays also put up the third best starting pitching ERA of any team in the league, at 3.85. They also saw bounce-back seasons from the aforementioned Jose Berrios and Yusei Kikuchi. Those two, as well as 200 inning man and off-season acquisition Chris Bassitt, were all crucial in not only weathering the sudden regression by 2022 AL Cy Young finalist Alek Manoah, but thriving in spite of it.
Similar praise can be heaped on the bullpen. The Blue Jays found much needed bullpen help in some unexpected places this year. Lefty specialist and Jays’ bullpen stalwart Tim Mayza had a career year, pitching to a stellar 1.52 ERA over a career high 53.1 IP. There was also 35-year old journeyman Jay Jackson, who provided some much needed stability and consistency during a vulnerable time for the Jays’ bullpen, notching a 2.12 ERA over 29.2 IP.
Twenty-seven year old late-bloomer Bowden Francis also provided some important quality innings late in the season, particularly in August, where he posted a 1.17 ERA in 15.1 IP across 9 appearances. And of course, the previously proven arms of Erik Swanson and Jordan Romano were once again a steady presence for this bullpen that was a plus aspect of the Jays’ season.
I don’t really know where to naturally fit in a section about Davis Schneider, so I’m just going to do it right now in a really forced manner. Uhhh, Davis Schneider was pretty good. I have been privy to the legend of The Babe since at least a month before his August 4th call-up thanks to my aforementioned friend gushing about his exploits.
The rookie (who will still be eligible for 2024 AL Rookie of the Year Award honors) provided an immediate spark to the team’s offense when he was inserted into the lineup. By the end of August, Schneider accrued a .426 batting average, .526 OBP, and a 1.420 OPS, to go along with 6 HRs in 14 games (13 of them starts).
The mustachioed masher came back down to Earth a bit in October (authoring a 33 at-bat hitless streak before going two-of-four on the final day of the regular season) but a lot of that (as well as to some extent in the opposite direction, his torrid start) can be attributed to bad BABIP luck, and still showcased his ability to draw walks at a high rate, which I suspect will make him a fixture in this lineup for years to come.
M-SABR Predicted Record (89-73) vs. Actual (89-73):
I think it’s clear that Apollo gifted season preview writer Jake Singer the gift of prophecy when making his prediction. He was spot on with the predicted record and ended up being pretty accurate in his predictions regarding the pitching a relative strength, and the outfield hitting being a point of question (although Kevin Kiermaier was very solid). I’m also not going to blame him for not predicting Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s disappointed season, because, let’s be honest, who was thinking that was going to happen?
Playoff Recap:
The Jays ended their season with a pathetic whimper rather than a triumphant roar, losing both games of their Wild Card series with the Minnesota Twins. They extended their postseason losing streak to 7 games, dating back to game 5 of the 2016 ALCS against the baseball team in Cleveland that used to have a more racist name. The bats, like they seemed to in many important spots throughout the season, just kinda vanished.
Surprise of the Season:
The surprise of the season has to have been the performance of Alek Manoah. After a season where he posted a 2.24 ERA, 196.2 IP, and a third place Cy Young finish, the 25 year-old was expected to anchor this team’s rotation. What happened instead was that Manoah regressed a disastrous amount–pitching to a 5.87 ERA across 19 starts and 87.1 innings–and ended up spending a large chunk of the season in the minor leagues.
In a season where most thought Manoah would affirm his breakout last year and entrench himself among the upper-echelon of starters in the league, all we’re left with are questions about what went wrong. Manoah wasn’t even the best Alek in MLB in 2023.
Players We Watched:
Jake sure picked some interesting players to watch in the season preview.
As a Mets fan, I’m familiar with Chris Bassitt. He was a reliably above-average innings-eater in Queens in 2022 and I was sad to see him go. 2023 saw more of the same from Bassitt, but with even more volume. He was one of only five pitchers to toss 200 frames in 2023. It wasn’t just volume either. Bassitt improved his ERA+ slightly over his 2022 campaign, going from 113 to 118. On his current 3 year, $63 million deal, Bassitt is looking like a huge win for this Jays front office.
The flashiest acquisition of the offseason for the Blue Jays was defensive whizz Daulton Varsho. While he lived up to that billing–putting up an MLB best 29 defensive runs saved–he also regressed with the bat, likely due to him pulling the ball at a much lower 41.7% rate in 2023, compared to 48.9% in 2022.
With Varsho’s poor average exit velocity, a dramatic drop in pulling the ball like that generally leads to a decline in power numbers, which is exactly what we saw in 2023. Varsho struggled to just 20 HRs this season, compared to 27 HRs in his final year in Arizona.
Erik Swanson kinda just picked up where he left off last season, huh? Okay, so he wasn’t quite as dominant as he was in 2022, but Swanson was once again just very good. Acquired in the offseason from the Mariners in the Teoscar Hernández trade, Swanson bolstered an already solid Jays bullpen, tossing 66.2 innings with a 2.97 ERA. I think the Blue Jays were definitely smart to get out from under Hernández, who does not profile as someone who will age very well with his poor defense and sky high K rate.
Offseason Outlook:
The Jays will look to spend in ways that will patch up the cracks that appeared in 2023 and take another crack at contending for the AL East and beyond in 2024. This is not a rebuilding team. They are firmly still in their window to compete, with key young pieces like Guerrero Jr., Bichette, Alejandro Kirk, and Davis Schneider remaining under team control, and veterans such as Berrios, Gausman, and Bassitt also still being under contract for 2024.
The team should really look to bolster their hitting core, as they are likely losing role players/veterans Kiermaier and Merrifield in free agency. One of the best fits out there in free agency would be 31 year-old slugger Jorge Soler. Soler would provide a much-needed consistent HR threat, which is something the Jays currently lack (fight me, but Vladdy is pretty inconsistent on that front).
As far as outfield depth goes, I think there are a couple of decent routes the Jays could go. One is Tommy Pham, who, especially with the Mets before the trade deadline, proved he can still be a positive contributor. Pham, who will turn 36 during Spring Training, hit 16 HRs, batted .256, and had a .774 OPS and 111 OPS+ on the season.
Another quality depth addition would be Adam Duvall, who had a very nice 2023 that was abbreviated by injuries. Duvall returned to form after a rough 2022 season, batting .247 with 21 HRs, an .834 OPS, and a 119 OPS+ for the Red Sox across 92 games.
The club should probably also look to sign someone who can play 2B or 3B, with Matt Chapman unlikely to return next season. The top name on the market for someone who fits this bill would probably be Jeimer Candelario, who is coming off of a very nice return-to-form 2023 season spent with the Cubs and Nationals. He got back to what we saw that he could be in his 2021 season, which is a guy who can hit around 20% above league average, hits a ton of doubles, and has 20 HR pop.
They could also look to sign a veteran infielder for depth, such as Amed Rosario, who hits lefties decently, or Donovan Solano, who has a .296 batting average, and 110 OPS+ in 450 games since returning to MLB in 2019.
There’s also the matter of what Brandon Belt will do. The 35 year-old 1B/DH has expressed uncertainty about playing past 2023. If he decides to give it one more year, the Blue Jays could do far worse than trying to bring him back for another run. If he does call it a career, however, the first option GM Ross Atkins should be looking into is longtime Phillies 1B Rhys Hoskins.
Hoskins, who will turn 31 shortly before next season starts and missed all of 2023 after tearing his ACL late in Spring Training, has a 125 OPS+ and 148 HRs across parts of 6 seasons in Philadelphia. Hoskins would inject more much-needed HR power into a team that could surely use it.
The team could use another starting pitcher as depth or a contingency plan depending on how Alek Manoah bounces back next season. I think a good candidate would be Big Maple, James Paxton. Paxton showed flashes of his former self for Boston last season, and certainly showed enough to prove that he’s still good enough to be a back-end starter. Paxton pitched to a 4.50 ERA (good for a 101 ERA+), 1.313 WHIP, and 101 Ks across 19 starts and 96.0 IP. I know he’s always injured, but the market for his type of player is not great this year.
One route that could be interesting is looking into former Reds and current Twins pitcher Tyler Mahle. Mahle, who pitched just 25.2 IP in 2023 before undergoing season-ending Tommy John Surgery, wouldn’t be much of a factor in 2024.
However, he is still relatively young (just turned 29 on September 29th), and has shown that he has the talent to be a low-end #2 or quality #3 in a rotation with plus strikeout ability. His signing would functionally be a 2025 and beyond signing, and I also don’t think it’s something that the Blue Jays are very likely to do, but it’s interesting to think about.
The Blue Jays will likely lose reliever Jordan Hicks in free agency, and therefore will be looking for another pen arm to replace him. It would be interesting to see them sign Reynaldo López.
López is a flamethrower who misses a lot of bats, but has been inconsistent year-to-year in his ability to limit walks. His upside is pretty high, and the risk is fairly low, as he likely won’t cost all that much. This is one of the hypothetical signings I want to see the most.
We saw the Blue Jays make their big splash trade for Daulton Varsho last season (with the final result of that tbd). I don’t think they’ll do anything that drastic again this offseason, but I can definitely see them calling up a team like the Twins and trying to get a bat like Jorge Polanco or Max Kepler in exchange for a starter at peak value like Yusei Kikuchi and a top 10 prospect.
What to Pay Attention to in the Future:
This is probably considered playing it safe, but it’s gotta be the young guys. It will be exciting to watch Davis Schneider with a larger sample size in 2024 to see if he’s the real deal (I think he is). But he’s not the only one.
You also have Spencer Horwitz, who, while not exactly young (he’s turning 26 in a little under two weeks at the time of writing), is a player we will probably see an increased role for next season. Horwitz doesn’t have huge power but he is extremely good at getting on-base, sporting a .450 OBP in 107 games at AAA in 2023.
You also have big-time power threat SS Orelvis Martinez, who has 58 HRs over the last two minor league seasons at AA and AAA and will only be 22 years-old by the time the 2024 season starts, as well as 3B prospect Addison Barger, who struggled at the plate compared to his stellar performance across three levels in 2022, but definitely still has promise.
It should be exciting to watch guys like Schneider and Horwitz take on increased roles, as well as seeing guys like Martinez and Barger hopefully making their big league debuts.
Categories: 2023 Season Review, Articles, Season Analysis
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